Campaigns

I. The American electoral process had undergone change in recent decades.

A. An ELECTION CAMPAIGN is an organized effort to persuade voters to choose one candidate over others competing for the same
office.

B. Increasingly, election campaigns have evolved from being party centered to being candidate centered.

II. Today candidates campaign for nomination as well as election.

A. In the United States, most aspiring candidates for major office are nominated through a PRIMARY ELECTION. Such elections may be classified as CLOSED, OPEN, and BLANKET, depending on the severity of requirements for determining party affiliation.

B. To nominate a presidential candidate, parties employ a complex mix of presidential primaries, local party caucuses, and party conventions.

1. A PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY is a special primary used to select delegates to attend the party's national nominating convention.

2. The LOCAL CAUCUS method of delegate selection is used in fifteen states.

III. Election campaigns may be studied by analyzing the political context, the available financial resources, and the strategies and tactics that underlie the dissemination of information about the candidate.

A. Political context

1. An INCUMBENT, the current officeholder, usually enjoys an advantage over a CHALLENGER, who seeks to replace him.

2. An OPEN ELECTION lacks an incumbent.

B. Financing

1. Election campaigns have become very expensive, and ample financing is usually critical to success.

a. Campaign financing for federal election today tends to be heavily regulated through the FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION.

(1) Limits have been imposed on amounts that individuals and groups can contribute to federal campaigns.

(2) Strict requirements have been imposed for disclosing campaign contributions and expenditures.

(3) Public funding is available for presidential campaigns, provided that the candidates limit their expenditures to the public funds.

(4) Public funding of presidential candidates has limited election costs, helped equalize the amounts spent by the nominees, and increased the personalization of campaigns.

2. Public funds are given to the presidential candidate rather than to the party. Access to such funds has generally further isolated the presidential campaign from congressional campaigns.

C. Strategies and tactics

1. Using information obtained from pollsters or political consultants, professional campaign managers develop a strategy that mixes party, issues, and images.

2. Campaign messages are disseminated to voters via the mass media through news coverage and advertising.

IV. All seats in the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and numerous state and local offices are filled in a GENERAL ELECTION held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November in even-numbered years.

A. Voters choose a president indirectly through the ELECTORAL COLLEGE composed of electors pledged to one of the candidates.

1. Each state is accorded one electoral vote for each of its senators and representatives.

2. Although it is possible for a candidate to win a plurality or even a majority of the popular vote and lose the election in the electoral college, the college generally operates to magnify the victory margin.

3. Its defenders argue that the system has been a stable one and that it tends to increase the legitimacy of the president-elect.

B. A voter is said to vote a STRAIGHT TICKET when he or she chooses only one party's candidates for all offices.

C. A voter who switches parties when choosing candidates for different offices is said to vote a SPLIT TICKET.

D. In recent years, elections have resulted in divided government, in which Republicans control the presidency and Democrats the Congress.

E. So-called FIRST-PAST-THE-POST ELECTIONS, conducted in single-member districts, award victory to the candidate with the most votes. In the United States, this results in the Republicans' receiving a lower percentage of congressional seats than votes.

V. Individual voting choices can be explained as products of long-term forces, which operate over a series of elections, and short-term forces, which are associated with particular elections.

A. Party identification is the most important long-term factor in voting choice.

1. About 40 percent of the voters say they know whom they are going to vote for before the party conventions.

2. Typically, the winning candidate for president holds nearly all of those who identify with his party, takes a sizable share of his opponents' identifiers, and wins most of the independents.

B. Among short-term forces, candidate attributes are especially important when voters lack information about a candidate's past behavior and policy stands.

1. Some voters fall back on their firsthand knowledge of religion, gender, and race in making political judgment.

2. Personal qualifications such as TRUSTWORTHINESS, LEADERSHIP, or CARING are important.

3. In the 1992 elections, Bill Clinton ranked lower than George Bush on trustworthiness, but higher on leadership and caring.

C. As for the other major short-term force, the candidate's policy position, most studies of presidential elections show that issues are less important than either party identification or the candidate's image, when people cast their ballots. 

D. There are definite limits to the effects of an election campaign on the outcome of elections. Factors outside the control of campaign managers have powerful effects on voting behavior.

VI. Although the party affiliation of the candidates and the party identification of the voters explain a good deal of electoral behavior, party organizations are not central to elections in America.

A. The Republican and Democratic parties fail to meet two of the four principles of responsible party government.

1. They do not choose candidates according to the party program.

2. The governing party cannot be held responsible at the next election for executing its program because there is no GOVERNING PARTY when the president is of one party and Congress is controlled by the other.

B. Parties in the United States typify the pluralist more than the Majoritarian model of democracy.

1. American parties act somewhat as major interest groups, seeking to elect their candidates with little regard for issues or ideologies favored by candidates for Congress and statewide office.

2. Stronger parties might be able to play a more important role in coordinating government policies after elections.

3. The decentralized nature of the nominating process and campaigning for election offer many opportunities for organized groups to back candidates that favor their interests.

RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

The competition between our political parties is most visible during our quadrennial exercise in selecting a president, when campaigning by presidential candidates helps to define what their party stands for. Likewise, the party label that they wear provides powerful cues to the electorate about what they stand for.

I. And the nominees are . . .

A. The pool of those who can mount a serious campaign for the presidency is a relatively small one. And how they get from this pool to the point where political elites are seriously considering nominating them is rather mysterious.

B. One journalist said a politician becomes a viable candidate when the GREAT MENTIONER includes him or her in his discussions. In other words, by some unknown force, people in Capital Hill cloakrooms, at Georgetown cocktail parties, and at party fundraisers begin to talk about the presidential prospects of particular politicians while ignoring others. And soon those names end up in the political columns of newspapers and magazines.

1. But if the ways of the Great Mentioner have not been uncovered by modern political science, we can still make some useful generalizations about who runs for president and who gets nominated.

2. Most of those who run for their party's nomination are members of Congress, governors, or sitting vice presidents. There are some exceptions, like ministers Pat Robertson and Jesse Jackson, and columnist Pat Buchanan, but the vast majority of candidates are those either currently holding political office or having just left it.

3. The 1992 race illustrates the nature of the pool. On the Democratic side we had Bill Clinton (governor), Tom Harkin (senator), Paul Tsongas (former senator), Bob Kerrey (senator), and Jerry Brown (former governor).

4. On the Republican side we had George Bush (incumbent) and columnist Pat Buchanan.

C. An even more striking pattern emerges when we look at who has won Democratic and Republican nominations. If we look at the nominations since 1960, some primary spawning grounds stand out:

D. Of the nonincumbants, three candidates came directly from the Senate. Five candidates (counting Nixon twice) were sitting or former vice presidents. In addition, two vice presidents, Johnson and Ford, acceded to the presidency and then ran as incumbents. Before becoming vice presidents, Nixon, Johnson, Humphrey, and Mondale all served in the Senate. Finally three former or current governors won their party nominations.

E. Clearly, it is quite difficult for sitting representatives to win their party's nomination. There are some who have made the effort, such as Gephardt and Kemp in 1988, but a representative who wants to run for president might think it strategic to gain a Senate seat or governorship first.

F. Some argue that the pool is far too circumscribed because it is limited to those holding high political office.

1. Would it be better if people who excelled in other walks of life were given serious consideration for party nominations?

2. In 1992, Ross Perot, multimillionaire businessman, received nearly 20 percent of the votes for President.

3. The obvious questions is: What kind of experience is necessary for the job of president? Is being head of a giant corporation with all its abundant challenges appropriate preparation for the White House?

4. Three recent Presidents, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, all claimed that spending their careers outside Washington was an advantage. Their reasoning was that they wouldn't be constrained by the normal political rules of Washington.

5. Still, all three were accomplished politicians, used to the bargaining and coalition building of politics. They were not moving into an entirely new career.

II. The primary route

A. Of those who do compete for their party's nomination, the first steps in the march toward victory are clear. They reason that they must run respectably in Iowa and then win the New Hampshire primary.

1. Success in the Iowa caucuses has become important because some candidates have tried to build momentum for the subsequent New Hampshire primary by gaining publicity with their success in Iowa.

2. New Hampshire is important because it has a higher voter turnout and thus reflects strength among a broader voter base.

3. Nevertheless, both states have few electoral votes and are only early signals of the greater battles ahead.

4. California, with its 54 electoral votes, more than any other state, has recently changed its primary from June to March. Thus, California will become a major early factor in candidate selection for 1996.

B. The crucial importance of the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses has led to calls for rotating the sites of the first primaries and caucuses. These states are not representative of the nation, yet their voters get to play a preeminent role in the selection of nominees.

1. As early as fall 1993, Republican aspirants to the 1996 nomination began visiting New Hampshire and Iowa in efforts to seek support. These included Senators Robert Dole, Phil Gramm, and Richard Lugar. 

2. Meanwhile, California, with its new early primary, has received many visits and special attention from incumbent President Bill Clinton.

C. Southern Democratic leaders were critical of the dominance of northern states early in the primary season. They felt that the types of candidates who were doing well in the North were the ones who would not do well in the South in the general election.

1. Consequently, the state legislatures of southern states changed the timing of their primaries to produce a southern regional primary early in the primary season.

2. The assumption was that it would produce either a southern nominee or a northern nominee more acceptable to the South.

3. In 1992, Bill Clinton, a southerner, easily defeated his primary opponents on Super Tuesday.

D. Primaries have not always played the preeminent role that they do now. One important step in their changing role as the route to the presidency came with John Kennedy's campaign in 1960.

1. Kennedy knew that many Democratic leaders harbored doubts about his ability to win because of his Catholic religion. To overcome these doubts, Kennedy took his case to the people, and confrontations with Humphrey in Wisconsin and highly Protestant West Virginia resulted in Kennedy triumphs. A number of key party bosses were eventually won over and they brought their delegations with them to give Kennedy the nomination.

2. Still, Humphrey won the nomination in 1968 even though he essentially bypassed the primaries.

3. The protest over Humphrey's nomination and the perception that he was the bosses' choice and not the people's were major causes of the fundamental change in the nominating process.

4. Over time, caucuses have been replaced with primaries, which permit more Majoritarian participation. In 1992, nearly forty states relied on primaries to select their nominee.

E. The nomination process is now a marathon, with campaigns beginning in earnest shortly after the last congressional election. Strong campaign skills that distinguish a candidate from the competition are crucial. We may be nominating people who are more skilled at campaigning than governing.

III. The electoral college

A. Once the nomination is won, a strategy must be developed for winning a majority of votes in the electoral college.

B. Despite having won seven of the last ten presidential elections through 1988, the Republicans lost in 1992 due to Majoritarian dissatisfaction with the incumbent, George Bush.

C. The electoral college is an anachronism that lives on.

1. It was designed to prevent too much Majoritarian democracy by making sure that only a select elite would actually be
able to elect a president.

2. It basically makes the votes of people in the more populous states more important than the votes of people in less populous states.

a. Campaign time, attention and money are focused on the states with the most electoral votes.

b. States with fewer people and fewer electoral votes may get ignored during the campaign.

3. Its decisions almost always reflect the popular vote anyway. Therefore, why should it exist at all?

4. In the twenty-first century, if the electoral college were not to reflect the voters' will, what would happen?

a. Would the public accept the electoral college decision?

b. Would the public demand that the popular will be respected?

c. What would happen to the constitutional requirement that such an election be handed to the House of Representatives for a one-vote-per-state decision?

THE DECLINING AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS AND ELECTORAL POLITICS

This lecture discusses the relationship between the decline of the middle class and the increasing disinterest in and distrust of the traditional two-party electoral system.

I. The American middle class traditionally had two elements.

A. The white-collar middle wage earner, such as the teacher, middle manager, accountant.

B. The blue-collar middle wage earner, such as the unionized industrial worker.

II. In recent years, international economic trends have forced down wages and caused a decline in the American blue-collar middle class.

A. Median family income for the middle class began to decline in the early 1970s.

B. Economist Lester Thurow speaks of the "collapse of earning prospects" for the bottom two-thirds of the workforce.

C. It is estimated that one in five American children lives in poverty as defined by government standards.

III. Even white-collar workers are seeing their real wages declining relative to inflation.

A. In 1993, more white-collar workers were out of work than blue collar workers.

1. Layoffs in the service sector of the economy have hit hard at technical, clerical and managerial employees.

2. Computerization is one cause of the reduced workforce.

3. Fierce competition with corporations in other nations is another reason for the reduction in the American workforce.

B. Wage stagnation, defined as a decline in purchasing power, has affected teachers, technical workers, and even some midlevel executives and managers.

C. Even educated Americans face declining opportunities.

1. The Labor Department (1992) warns that 30 percent of each new college graduating class from 1992 through 2005 will leave college and remain unemployed or underemployed.

2. Underemployment is chronic for the one-third of the American workforce that work as "temps." The largest private employer in the U.S. is Milwaukee-based Manpower, Inc.

3. Temporary workers generally earn less and have few or no fringe benefits.

IV. At the same time the middle class has been declining, a few Americans have become much wealthier.

A. Americans earning $500,000 or more a year increased by 85 percent during the 1980s. 

B. Gaps between workers and top managers (CEOs) have increased to a 1992 average of $24,411 for the worker and $3,842,247 for the CEO.  V. However, most of the people who leave the middle class do not rise to the upper class--they fall into the working poor or below.

A. Nearly 23 percent of Americans are defined as working poor.

B. Working-poor income levels are insufficient to provide all the essentials for a family.  

C. Poverty contributes to many of the social ills, including crime, violence, premature childbearing, and substance abuse.

VI. What were some factors in this tremendous loss of middle-class status for so many Americans?

A. International economic events such as the OPEC boycott in 1973 and the subsequent permanent rise in oil prices have played a role.

B. Also, Americans have not saved or invested well. 

C. The restructuring of the international economy has caused almost one million blue-collar factory jobs to leave the U.S. permanently.

D. The attacks on the labor movement by the Reagan administration and related declines in American unionism has also led to further deterioration in wages.

1. Despite campaign promises, Bill Clinton was unable to persuade even his fellow Democrats in Congress to overcome Republican opposition and pass a pro-labor bill in 1994.

2. The labor movement continues to shrink as fewer Americans work in full-time jobs in unionized workplaces.

E. The demand of Wall Street for quick profits has speeded up the deindustrialization of America and the export of blue-collar jobs.

1. American-based companies find it more profitable to do their production activities offshore.

a. Recent examples of plant closures that resulted in permanent layoffs include the Kellwood Industries, St. Louis, and Stride Rite, Boston.

b. Even companies with longstanding commitments to their communities and employees are under economic pressure to relocate.

2. Whereas the competition over factory location used to be between states, with nonunion southern states often beating out unionized northern states, now the competition is between Roxbury, Mass. and Indonesia.

F. The gap between the requirements of work in the 1990s and the ability of American education to prepare tomorrow's workforce has aggravated the problems. How will today's students turn into the highly skilled, high tech workers of tomorrow? 

1. Many American classrooms have no computers.

2. Many American children have test scores lower than those of children in other industrialized nations.

3. The American public expenditure on education as a percentage of GNP is 5.5 percent. In Sweden, it is 8.5 percent, in Canada, 8 percent.

G. The U.S. pattern of "disinvestments" in public infrastructure has degraded the ability of the economy to grow. Public sector investment is directly correlated with economic growth.

1. With the exception of prisons and corrections, most public investment programs, have declined in the past twenty years.

2. The "peace dividend" that was supposed to be created by the end of the Cold War has been diverted into deficit reduction rather than new investment.

3. The U.S. Conference of Mayors has identified over 7,000 public works projects, ranging from library construction to road improvements, that have been put on hold due to lack of funds.

H. The American people's fascination with imported consumer goods has not helped--Americans have consumed foreign goods while expecting to keep their domestic production jobs.

VII. What are the political implications of this decline in what has been considered the backbone of the U.S.?

A. There has been an increase in voting for third party or independent candidates.

1. Between 1864 and 1964, only three third-party candidates took more than 6 percent of the national vote.

a. Populist James Weaver took 8.5 percent in 1892.

b. Progressive Teddy Roosevelt took 27.4 percent in 1912.

c. Progressive Robert La Follette took 16.6 percent in 1924.

2. Between 1968 and 1992, three candidates who were neither Democrats nor Republicans took more than 6 percent, with Ross Perot getting nearly 20 percent of the national vote in 1992. 

a. George Wallace took 13.5 percent in 1968.

b. John Anderson took 6.6 percent in 1980.

B. What does this trend suggest for future third-party candidates?

1. Although only the Libertarians have ballot status in all fifty states, there are movements to create new third parties with national presence.

2. The NEW PARTY, defined as a progressive alternative to both major parties, has won 35 out of its first 50 races for local office.

3. More and more Americans are expressing dissatisfaction with the two major parties.

C. Political scientists will be watching in 1996 and beyond for a continuing relationship between economic security issues and presidential election outcomes.

1. Will voter turnout continue to decline?

2. Will third party candidates continue to gain strength?

3. Will traditional two-party politics be merely jostled or will the two parties sustain serious damage?